Your Odds of Solo Mining Bitcoin

Solo mining Bitcoin is possible, but the odds are tiny. See the odds by hashrate, the formula, and the hashrate where finding a block becomes likely.

By Jonathan West · Updated November 10, 2026

Anyone can solo mine Bitcoin, but a 100 TH/s miner has about a 1-in-174 chance of finding a block in a year at the 10-minute target pace.

Solo mining yields the entire block reward in a single payout. But hardware running under 12 PH/s faces years of power bills before seeing even odds of a single hit.

About solo mining bitcoin

Solo mining Bitcoin is a lottery ticket. It does not produce income. At the 10-minute target pace, a 100 TH/s (terahashes per second) miner has roughly a 1-in-174 chance of finding a block in one year. A 1 TH/s machine has about 1 in 17,000. Readers unfamiliar with difficulty adjustments can read our explainer on how Bitcoin mining works. The whole network hashes at about 911 exahashes per second. A solo miner keeps the entire block reward, and nothing is paid until your equipment finds a block.

How it actually works

Solo mining Bitcoin involves configuring mining hardware to search for valid blocks where all coinbase rewards pay out directly to your personal address. According to the Bitcoin Developer Guide, a solo miner traditionally runs a local bitcoind node to gather unconfirmed transactions from the network.

The mining software queries bitcoind using the getblocktemplate remote procedure call (RPC). It retrieves transaction data and builds a candidate block with a customized coinbase output.

Once the block header is constructed, the mining software transmits the header data to an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC). The ASIC calculates hashes to find a block hash below the network's required target. If the machine finds a valid hash, the software finalizes the block and broadcasts it back through the bitcoind node to the broader peer-to-peer network.

Hardware cannot mine directly to a Bitcoin Core node without intermediary software, so many miners point their hardware at a solo mining service such as Solo CKPool. Solo CKPool provides the Stratum endpoints, and the full reward goes to the address you set.

What Your Solo Mining Bitcoin Odds Look Like

In our internal modeling, we calculated the odds of finding a block for several hashrates. We used the network hashrate published by mempool.space on 10 November 2026. The network hashrate sat at approximately 911 EH/s (exahashes per second, or 9.11 x 10^20 hashes per second).

Your share equals your personal hashrate divided by total network hashrate. Your probability of finding at least one block over N blocks is 1 minus (1 minus share) to the power of N. Expected yearly blocks equal your share multiplied by 52,560 target blocks.

A 1 TH/s miner represents a network share of about 1.1 x 10^-9 (0.00000011 percent). This rate yields an expected 17,337 years per block. The chance of finding a block is 0.0058 percent (about 1 in 17,337) in one year and 0.058 percent over ten years.

A 100 TH/s machine represents a network share of about 1.1 x 10^-7 (0.000011 percent). This capacity yields an expected 173 years per block. The chance of solving a block is 0.58 percent (about 1 in 174) in one year and 5.6 percent across ten years.

A 1 PH/s (petahashes per second, equal to 1,000 TH/s) setup represents a network share of about 1.1 x 10^-6 (0.00011 percent). This hardware faces an expected 17.3 years per block. It provides a 5.6 percent chance (about 1 in 17.8) in one year and a 43.8 percent chance over a ten-year window.

Even odds (a 50 percent probability) of winning a block in a single year require approximately 12.0 PH/s at the standard ten-minute pace. This represents a 0.0013 percent network share. Securing a 1-in-10 annual shot demands roughly 1.8 PH/s.

These baseline calculations assume the network hits its target of 52,560 blocks per year at 600 seconds per block. On 10 November 2026, the live average block interval recorded by mempool.space was approximately 645.6 seconds, producing roughly 48,849 blocks per year. This slower live pace adjusts annual odds to about 1 in 18,654 for 1 TH/s and 1 in 187 for 100 TH/s.

Odds are roughly 1 in 19 for 1 PH/s. Even annual odds rise to 12.9 PH/s.

The average block reward over the 144 blocks ending at block 975,284 was approximately 3.15 BTC. This consists of the 3.125 BTC block subsidy plus transaction fees. A solo miner who discovers a block secures this entire 3.15 BTC amount in one payout.

How Solo Mining Bitcoin Works Without a Pool

You can solo mine by running your own Bitcoin Core node or by pointing a miner at a solo mining service. On its website, Solo CKPool states that it is not a pool despite its name. It is a service to allow miners to mine solo blocks.

Solo CKPool has operated as a not-for-profit service since 2014. It charges a 2 percent fee, requires no registration, enforces no payment schemes, and maintains no operator wallets.

To connect to Solo CKPool, a miner sets the username to their personal Bitcoin address. You may include an optional worker extension and any arbitrary password. The service rejects invalid Bitcoin addresses during connection.

Standard hardware communicates via stratum.ckpool.org on port 3333. Miners compatible with Stratum V2 connect on port 3336, with an experimental job declaration service on port 3337.

Solo CKPool states that it applies default Bitcoin Core transaction selection without filtering, publishing active block candidate transactions publicly. Solo CKPool notes that miners with optimized local Bitcoin nodes operating on fast connections gain no operational advantage from its service. Solo CKPool warns that hashrates below 100 GH/s (gigahashes per second) are unrealistic for finding blocks.

Shares submitted there serve cosmetic diagnostic purposes. They do not alter block discovery odds.

Do Solo Bitcoin Miners Ever Win a Block?

Solo miners do occasionally win blocks. Mempool.space shows that Solo CKPool was credited with 3 of the 13,419 blocks discovered across the network.

This occurred during a three-month evaluation period. Across that same window, the three solo services mempool.space tags (Solo CKPool and two others) found 6 blocks, which is 0.045 percent of all blocks.

This historical performance aligns with expected statistical boundaries based on connected computational power. On 10 November 2026, Solo CKPool pool status recorded 23,292 active users.

Hashrate averaged 116 PH/s on a 1-day basis and 136 PH/s on a 7-day basis. These figures represented a global network share between 0.013 percent and 0.015 percent.

Solo CKPool had an expected outcome between 1.7 and 2.0 blocks across those 13,419 network blocks. This corresponds to its 116 PH/s and 136 PH/s hashrates. Finding 3 blocks demonstrates positive variance rather than an impossibility.

Solo Mining Bitcoin Versus a Pool

The choice between solo mining and a pool is a choice about payment variance. The Bitcoin Developer Guide describes solo mining as higher variance and pooled mining as lower variance.

In our internal modeling the expected reward is the same before fees, because a pool pays out in proportion to work. Solo mining pays large rewards at high variance, while a pool pays small rewards at low variance.

A pool pays out in proportion to the work you submit, so payouts arrive far more often than a solo block. To see how a pool works, read what a Bitcoin mining pool is. To compare pools, see our guide to the best Bitcoin mining pools.

Solo CKPool charges a 2 percent fee on top of the transaction fees paid by Bitcoin. With solo mining, no revenue arrives until a full block is validated.

Our Takeaway on Solo Mining Bitcoin

Based on our internal modeling, solo mining Bitcoin functions as an all-or-nothing lottery. It makes sense only if you can afford to lose your entire electricity investment. At 100 TH/s, facing a 1-in-174 annual probability means you should expect ongoing utility bills without any realized income.

Annual odds approach even levels only near 12 to 13 PH/s. Below that threshold, allocating capital to solo mining should be viewed as an expense rather than a steady strategy.

Who Should Not Solo Mine Bitcoin

Solo mining Bitcoin is not suitable for operators who depend on regular cash flow to pay recurring electrical bills. If your mining operation requires monthly income to offset energy consumption, avoid solo configurations and join a standard pool instead. Anyone purchasing an individual ASIC miner under the assumption that it will generate baseline daily earnings should not point it at a solo stratum endpoint.

Small-scale operators must examine operational overhead before committing machines to solo addresses. You can model your energy expenses using our crypto mining calculator to evaluate how long your hardware can run at zero income. Solo mining is appropriate only for hobbyists running spare or depreciated units as lottery tickets, or enterprise facilities deploying petahash-scale power.

What Would Change Our Answer

Our assessment that solo mining is purely a lottery ticket would change if an operator deploys hashrate reaching the petahash range. Operating at 12 PH/s or higher transitions the annual probability of solving a block into even odds at target network pace.

Our conclusion would also shift if global network hashrate experiences a severe, sustained reduction. This would proportionally shorten expected years per block across every hashrate bracket.

Start here

1Calculate your machine's exact hashrate and compute your percentage share of the 911 EH/s global network.
2Determine whether your personal budget can absorb continuous power costs for months or years without any mining revenue.
3Decide whether to run your own Bitcoin Core node with getblocktemplate or to connect to a solo mining service such as Solo CKPool.
4Configure your miner's stratum address to stratum.ckpool.org on port 3333, or port 3336 if using Stratum V2.
5Enter your personal payout Bitcoin address directly into the worker username field on your ASIC configuration page.
6Check your miner's own status screen to confirm it is connected to Solo CKPool.

Strengths

Solo miners receive the entire block reward of approximately 3.15 BTC directly without sharing it across other participants.
Services like Solo CKPool require no account registration, user profiles, or custodial balance accounts.
Transaction selection in native solo mining relies on standard Bitcoin Core rules without mandatory third-party filtering.
Large facilities operating at 12 PH/s or higher have roughly even odds of finding a block within a year.

Common misunderstandings

Machines running 100 TH/s face an expected interval of 173 years per block, yielding a 99.42 percent probability of zero annual returns.
Electrical power costs must be paid continuously out of pocket with no regular income to offset utility invoices.
Solo CKPool deducts a 2 percent fee from the total reward when a connected worker solves a block.
Modern network difficulty renders CPU, GPU, and low-hashrate hardware obsolete for finding valid Bitcoin blocks.

Common questions

Is solo mining Bitcoin worth it?

Solo mining Bitcoin is not worth it as an income strategy, but it functions as a lottery for participants willing to lose their operating expenses. At the 10-minute target pace, a 100 TH/s miner has roughly a 1-in-174 yearly chance of finding a block, or about 1 in 187 at the live pace. Power costs are spent with no guaranteed return. Solo mining is viable only for hobbyists treating electricity as an entertainment expense or facilities wielding petahash-scale capacity.

Can you solo mine Bitcoin with a PC or laptop?

You cannot realistically solo mine Bitcoin using a PC or laptop. Solo CKPool states that CPU and GPU mining are never recommended for Bitcoin, and hashrates under 100 GH/s are unrealistic for finding blocks. Modern Bitcoin proof of work requires dedicated ASIC hardware to generate meaningful shares against global network difficulty.

What hashrate do you need to solo mine Bitcoin?

Securing even 50 percent odds within one year requires roughly 12.0 PH/s at target block pace. At live network pace, that rises to 12.9 PH/s. A 100 TH/s ASIC yields only a 0.58 percent annual chance, while 1 PH/s provides roughly a 5.6 percent shot. Any lower hashrate functions purely as a long-shot entry.

How long does it take to solo mine a Bitcoin block?

The time required to find a block represents a statistical average rather than a fixed schedule. At a global network hashrate of 911 EH/s, a 100 TH/s miner faces an expected average duration of 173 years per block. A 1 TH/s unit averages 17,337 years, while a 1 PH/s deployment averages 17.3 years.

How do I solo mine Bitcoin?

You can solo mine either by running a local bitcoind node that feeds transactions to your mining software through the getblocktemplate RPC. Or you can point an ASIC at a solo mining service such as Solo CKPool. Using Solo CKPool, you direct your hardware to stratum.ckpool.org on port 3333 and set your worker username to your Bitcoin payout address. The service builds the candidate blocks and routes the full reward to your address if your machine solves a block.

Do solo Bitcoin miners ever win a block?

Solo Bitcoin miners do win blocks, as verified by public blockchain tracking. Mempool.space credited Solo CKPool with discovering 3 of 13,419 blocks over a three-month window, matching statistical expectations for its 116 to 136 PH/s average hashrate. Analyze your baseline electricity costs using our crypto mining calculator. Use it to see if unpooled mining makes financial sense before committing to solo mining bitcoin.

Sources

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